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Charles

It can almost be seen that criminal activity is based on common sense.

To me it is obvious that large urban areas attract most crime and rural communities the least. A handbag is more likely to be stolen in Milan since it may itself be worth a weeks wages, never mind it's contents:)

These stats can probably be echoed across the globe.

More people, more money, more crime.

The level of crime in poorer areas is possibly due to the wild west/dog eat dog/survival of the fittest attitude of certain human beings.

Dave

Cornwall near England

Nice to see Marche at the bottom:D

[quote=YNot]It can almost be seen that criminal activity is based on common sense.
To me it is obvious that large urban areas attract most crime and rural communities the least. A handbag is more likely to be stolen in Milan since it may itself be worth a weeks wages, never mind it's contents[/quote]

I don't think it's as black and white as that. As Charles says, the information is incomplete. A clearer view, for example, would be to see crime rates per head of population.
You could live quite happily, quite secure, in Milan knowing there's an average of 100 burglaries a week (conservative guestimate), whereas you'd probably start to get very concerned, and indeed it would affect you more, if there were 2 or 3 burglaries in one year in your tiny community in Marche. So, high rates over there and low rates here don't particularly mean you're safer.
Also, criminals travel to commit crime!

Anyway, all the doom and gloom aside, I'm certain that, statistically, it's a safer place to live than Britain or Ireland right now and there's little need to worry.

Sure that Lazio is only top of this list because of Roma! Touch wood we have always felt very very safe around here!

i think mr joseph will be expecting a reply and those of you that have seen some of my postings will realise i dont partake of the green and pleasant land syndrome..... the posting comes at an apt time .... and i think he must have been reading an article by a male reporter......

today the front headlines of several of the major newspapers reflect on the 40,000 cases of violence against women here and the scandal of these sort of figures.... reported rape estimated at 7,5% of the total..... all coming to a head because of the latest round of rapes occuring in some of the cities here....
a couple of weeks ago they reported on murders involving family members .... on average 1 every 1 and a half days....

and what they like to call villa robberies...that is armed gangs attacking rich looking villas .... holding up and threatening families and then escaping back across the eastern borders... very violent... not an ordinary burglary.... has reached an unprecedented level here....they say..... one a day... mainly lombardy and venice...

so crime figures here do not reflect the true story and feeling safe is much the same as england....where you live.....

however ..... i regard these figures as reflective of most western european countries and not something unique to italy .... sad as the first one might be... little seems to change....

my general points on crime here are directed at in general institutional organised criminality...the effect on the environment and the involvement of the political criminal system here in skimming off major amounts of funding into their own pockets to the detriment of the whole country.... the abuse of commercial enterprises that have to pay duty to these various organisations.... the restrictions on the politicians who wish to improve things because of threats and assasinations.... and the worries of populations restricted by these criminals over no work .... no hope for the future and worry about their children.....

.... i can only agree that crime here does appear lower to those that visit or have lived here a short time in relative rural obscurity...but so would it elsewhere.... i can say most of our village leave keys in their front doors...cars and windows open.... tools lay in the open..... and life is good.... and most probably the same in small villages all over italy... but then when you become an inhabitant of the place because you might live in a nicer area does not mean that you should ignore the problems of others....

.... most probably all italians will say they feel more threatened.... and generally they report the more agressive crimes in terms of co nationals or foreigners.... without wanting to stir up a race debate their view is that the liberlisation of the eastern european countries is a disaster for them and they find ... true or not the fear of crime from immigrants that live here a very current perception and at least half the crime commited is blamed on these ...true or not..... please dont shout back prejudice... i am repeating a common reported fact here and i do not happen to be nieve enough to totally hold this view....

[QUOTE=Charles Joseph] For example, ladies are less likely to have their handbags snatched in Cagliari (a 0.2% chance) than they are in Milan (a 7% chance).
...
For example, there’s a 1 in 7 chance of having your house burgled in central Italy, whereas in southern Italy the probability becomes 1 in 2.[/QUOTE]

Charles, I appreciate that the point of your post was to compare different regions of Italy, but the statistics you cite make the whole country sound like a den of thieves!

A grasp of the finer points of statistics has always eluded me, but my reading of the numbers you give suggest that, out of any 100 women in Milan, seven of them will have their bag stolen in any given year. Or, to put it another way, every woman in Milan can expect to have her bag nicked at least once every 14 years.

As far as burglaries are concerned, I do hope it is not the case that every house in southern Italy is burgled every other year! And I will have to reconsider my plans to contact you in early 2006 to ask if we can meet and view some properties in Le Marche if it is indeed true that one house in every seven in central Itlay is burgled in any given year.

Are these numbers perhaps the percentages of the national total of various crimes caried out in the listed areas? For example, did 7% of all handbag thefts in Italy in the year in question occur in Milan? And did half of all the burglaries reported in Italy in the given year occur in the south? If so, then (for the reasons given by YNot and derekL) the numbers are really pretty meaningless.

Statistics are always open to manipulation; crime statistics especially so since there are always those in positions of power with a vested interest in making things look worse or better than they really are.

As most people know, in the UK there are two sets of offical crime statistics: one is a count of cases reported to the police, the other the result of surveys asking people what crime they have actually experienced. The latter number is always higher since a proportion of crimes are never reported to the police.

I am sure similar must happen in Italy for reasons similar to those in the UK and, as John suggest, perhaps for reasons that are unique to Italy at this particular point in Europe's history.

Any comparison between UK and �������� crime statistics is problematic. However, it does seem to me that there is always a tendency for some expats (and wannabe expats) to view Britain in a more negative light than their new home, whether that be in relation to the NHS, crime or whatever. While the media constantly tries to convince us otherwise, the UK is nowhere near being a lawless society.

This relates somewhat to John's comments about security in his village: I am normally careful to take sensible precautions and keep our doors and windows locked, but I have more than once forgotten to close our garage door and left it open all night, leaving a lot of tools and gardening equipment on plain view to everyone passing on the pavement four metres away. The fact that nothing has ever been nicked does not mean that the village I live in is crime free, but it does suggest to me that things are not quite as bad here as some people might frighten themselves into believing.

Al

[SIZE=3][FONT=Times New Roman]Al[/FONT][/SIZE]

[SIZE=3][FONT=Times New Roman]The point of this thread is not to make Italy appear as a den of thieves (don’t forget that the figures quoted are those issued by the Police). My aim was to open up some intelligent debate (which appears to be happening here) on the subject rather than see an all out war involving verbal abuse and obtuse points of view.[/FONT][/SIZE]

[SIZE=3][FONT=Times New Roman]I agree with you that stats are open to manipulation, but I did say that what these figures conceal is far more important. Despite the fact that they are out of date, they do suggest that it doesn’t really matter where you go because crime is part and parcel of everyday life. Moreover, it is also interesting to note that not all southern regions are as bad as some of the stereotyped images would have you believe. [/FONT][/SIZE]

[SIZE=3][FONT=Times New Roman]You mention that you may have to reconsider your plans for Marche and Abruzzo. Perhaps you missed the point. What I said was that judging by the figures, [COLOR=black]southern Italy has the highest number of house burglaries, armed robberies and general theft when compared to northern and central Italy. And as far as Central Italy goes (which includes Marche and parts of Abruzzo), with the exception of the larger cities of course, it is still a relatively safe place to live. [/COLOR][/FONT][/SIZE]

[SIZE=3][FONT=Times New Roman]As much as I prefer Italy to the countless other countries I have visited, like John (by the way for John’s benefit the article I referred to was in the Economist’s the world in 2006 and not the mail), I too do not subscribe to the Shangrila theory. Sadly, Italy has a darker side (which extends beyond crime). It would be naïve of anyone to think otherwise. This has nothing to do with doom and gloom, but about being practical and realistic. It is about realigning ones expectations and adapting to a different culture. [/FONT][/SIZE]

[QUOTE=Charles Joseph]The point of this thread is not to make Italy appear as a den of thieves (don’t forget that the figures quoted are those issued by the Police).[/QUOTE]

...Who just might be seen as having a vested interest in making things look as grim as possible in order to put pressure on politicians to increase their funding, numbers, available overtime, etc. ;)

[QUOTE=Charles Joseph]My aim was to open up some intelligent debate (which appears to be happening here) on the subject rather than see an all out war involving verbal abuse and obtuse points of view.[/QUOTE]

I'm not trying to be awkward or obtuse, but I do question the numbers you cite. As I said, if the probability of a house in a particular area being burgled is 1 in 2, this means that any house chosen at random will probably have been burgled once in the last two years. While I am aware that parts of Italy have serious social problems, that sort of crime rate suggests a society that has collapsed into something approaching anarchy.

[QUOTE=Charles Joseph]You mention that you may have to reconsider your plans for Marche and Abruzzo. Perhaps you missed the point.[/QUOTE]

No, I just forgot to stick in the smiley. :rolleyes:

The figure you cite for central Italy is a 1 in 7 chance of a property being burgled. I'm not sure where you live, but say it's a village about the size of the one I live in now and it has 700 houses. According to the statistics you give, in an average year, 100 of those properties will be burgled.

If that number doesn't match your experience -- and I will be astounded if it does -- it seems to me that two things are possible: either there's a problem with the statistics or the burglaries that [I]aren't[/I] happening in your village [I]are[/I] taking place somewhere else in the region in order to make up the numbers.

Nothing I have heard, seen or read about Le Marche or Abruzzo suggests that crime on that scale is endemic anywhere in the two regions. Therefore, I question the numbers, not my decision to seek a home in the area.

I just had another look at your first post and the numbers you gave there for "total crime" in Roma, Napoli, Palermo and Bari. Since (as others have pointed out) those numbers don't mean much without the context of the total population of the areas, I also did a quick search for the populations of the four cities. A back-of-the-envelope calculation indicates that, for the year in question, there was one crime for every 54 people in Rome, one crime for every 64 people in Napoli, one crime for every 104 people in Bari and one crime for every 112 people in Palermo.

I can, however, immediately think of one problem with this calculation: I suspect that the figures for Roma are badly skewed by awe-struck tourists being preyed upon. As a matter of fact, if the numbers you gave were for 2001, I was counted amongst the "Romans" who was a victim of crime since my pocket was picked on a visit to the city that year. While I was waiting to be interviewed by a bored and surly Caribineri, other tourists arrived with similar tales of woe.

As far as the other cities are concerned, it seems to me entirely plausible that the numbers there might be distorted downward by people who just don't report crimes because they see no point in doing so.

Al

[QUOTE=Charles Joseph]On the down side, southern Italy has by far, the highest number of house burglaries, armed robberies and general theft when compared to northern and central Italy. For example, there’s a 1 in 7 chance of having your house burgled in central Italy, whereas in southern Italy the probability becomes 1 in 2. The very worst places in 2001 were the Provinces of [B]Rome, Naples, Palermo and Bari[/B] (with a total of 47,473, 15,557, 6,497 and 3,041 crimes respectively).[/QUOTE]

I'm trying to make some sense of those figures too.

If we take Rome, for example, with a population of about 2.7 million people and we estimate that the average occupancy of a house is 2 people then there would be about 1.4 million homes. If 1 in 7 were to be burgled every year, then the number of burglaries would be around 200,000.
The figure quoted for Rome is 47,473 and Charles quotes 'crimes'; whether that refers to burglaries alone or all crimes, I don't know, but in any event, that would mean that about one person in 57 in Rome was a victim of crime last year. That sounds more realistic to me.

Statistics can be confusing. Perhaps the meaning of the figures was that of all burglaries in Italy, 1 in 2 happens in the south and 1 in 7 happens in Rome. In any event, I think we can be sure that the reason that there are so few crimes in Le Marche is the low number of unqualified Estate Agents there.

Here is a link with a huge amount of data.
Unfortunatly it's in pdf format, referred to 2003 and in italian, but thare are many graphics easy to read
It's the annual compendio sulla criminalità in Italia (yearbook on crime in Italy) made by the italian gov.

[url]http://coordinamento.mininterno.it/pubblicazioni/compendio2003/Compendio2003.pdf[/url]

[FONT=Times New Roman][SIZE=3]Al[/SIZE][/FONT]

[FONT=Times New Roman][SIZE=3]Don't refute with what you say. Neither am I accusing you of being awkward or obtuse. [/SIZE][/FONT]

[FONT=Times New Roman][SIZE=3]Most of us are aware of the problems associated with using statistics as evidence. As I said earlier, these figures conceal more than they reveal. In any case, they are out date. Moreover, the Police only cite six activities and I'm sure there are a lot more which remain unpublished. For a truly statistically valid study showing the levels of crime, we would need to examine other factors and not rely simply on the six activities listed by the Police because they don’t really tell the whole story. [/SIZE][/FONT]

[FONT=Times New Roman][SIZE=3]Of course there will be some prejudice involved and subjectivity with inconsistency is unavoidable. After all, we are dealing with soft issues here and the human factor is impossible to eliminate from any study of social problems. Moreover, whether intentionally or unintentionally, studies involving people are not predictive and can thus give rise to difficulties when it comes to the use or application of statistics. This is by no means a condemnation of the information provided by the Police. Statistics on crime rates say nothing about the regions per se, but they point to the cultural and social factors that make policing crime an increasingly difficult task. As Italy is becoming more culturally and ethnically diverse, there is, inevitably, a rising incidence of crime around the country, although some parts are unquestionably better than others.[/SIZE][/FONT]

[FONT=Times New Roman][SIZE=3]But that is not the point. The figures (which are not mine but those issued by the Police) cited in my thread were intended to open the floor to further debate, to hear what others have to say and what evidence they have to support their views. A number of Forum members just seem intent on making stereotyped statements about an area or region, or making childish and vacuous remarks without an informed opinion. This is perhaps one of the reasons why some members have become disenchanted with Forum. Everyone is entitled to arrive at their own conclusions of course, but if they can’t back up their argument with some form of evidence, then they should really do some research before speaking out. [/SIZE][/FONT]

[FONT=Times New Roman][SIZE=3]As far as central Italy is concerned, the figures cited cover the regions of Umbria, Tuscany, Emilia Romagna and Marche. They are unquestionably skewed by places like Florence and Bologna, where the level of criminal activity is much higher than say in villages like Raggiolo (Arezzo), Cerreto di Spoleto (Umbria), Rotella (Marche) or Cuviolo (Emilia-Romagna) for example.[/SIZE][/FONT]

aliena...

in response to your questions....

the opinion i have put forward is one that is often quoted on tv discussion progs, newspapers and more relevant maybe... my neighbours...all of whom are italian...

in essence it is a form of popular belief... when unemployment is high and everyone knows this or that company down the road employing cheaper immigrant labour... or that person with a carer from russia.. a cleaner from a slav country they then ask the question...why are not our children able to get work.... and with rates of pay low here already its even harder to compete.... average wage e1000 per month ...hardly poss to live on and in popular parlance immigrants work for half that.... so it builds up a form of resentment.... and myth...

crime .... in a town near us one day everyone was talking about how the albanians had robbed 13 houses one night... next time we visited someone from that town we mentioned this astounding outbreak and the worry it must be causing.... none of it was true... how these stories satr god knows.... but it is now part of that populra myth ...backed up by more serious highlighted crimes.... where it is habitual here to refer to the robbers/assailants as having slav accents....

recently and it always seems to happen there have been a series of more than normally brutal rapes.... these again are generally blamed on illegal immigrants...in the reporting.... what i suspect is that they are more reported percentually than as they call them Co national crime....

so in reallity ... to me anyway... there is an increase in crime in italy due to immigration..legal and illegal from these countries... it is apparent even in abruzzo.... but ... the reason is often to do with the difficulty anyone has in actually getting legal papers or work here.....and more apparent to me is the usefulness of having a non voting illegal population to blame for national problems .... do not forget there is an election coming up... and hard lines are being proposed against eastern illegal immigration..... as if this will solve all the problems......

so it is a disaster for italy....not because it is true that all slav/albanians are criminals.... that they will work for little.... or are lazy.... but that the perception is true... and is being promoted here...with little thought for future consequences of this sort of stereotyping.... much as it has happened in the case of many emmigrant populations..... not long ago even the italians... and it leads to ghettoising and longer term civil disturbance problems in the future...

and finally so as not to say it is all pie in the sky..... as i mentioned before these villa robberies are big news here... football players... stars of public life here...etc etc... they are very big news stories...and it is most probably true.... that the majority are commited by people taking the short trip over the eastern land border.... plundering the rich and famous here...with army like weaponary.... and fleeing back to their homeland.... so people point these out as examples of the problem..... because there are hundreds of these robberies occuring.... though one gang was of calabrian origin and they have been caught.... so perceptions...exagerated or not can be based on a little bit of well publicised crime....

[QUOTE=Aliena]John.

Thanks for repyling.. I'm grateful.. on more than one count! ;)

If I understand correctly what you are saying, it appears the "immigrant" works longer than the "local" for less money. If you are taking the example salary of 1000 euro a month for locals and only half that for immigrants; ie 500 euros a month.. and saying that even 1000 euros is almost impossible to live on, then how on earth can anything else be expected of the immigrant?

I'm positive not all immigrants are criminals anymore than all locals are law abiding.. but..

Does anyone know..

How do the law abiding immigrants live on half or less than the amount it is possible to survive on? Why (and how) do they stay in a place where they can not survive?

:) :)[/QUOTE]

The short answer as to why an immigrant can live on half the money of a local, without resorting to crime is ... they HAVE to survive on say - half the income of a local as that's all anyone's paying - and to do this, they pool resources and support each other. For example, if an immigrant family has a 'two up, two down' property - say - in the UK, a dozen people may sleep there in shifts. They accept low wages because they have no choice, especially when they first arrive.

Many do not believe in borrowing money (they wouldn't get credit from the main stream anyway) so they tend to lend to each other (where possible) and therefore don't pay any interest. In the case of Muslims, it's against their religion.

There are many stories of immigrants arriving with nothing and starting their own successful business.

To take it a step futher, immigrant families, and I stress families, not just a lone young bloke on his own, tend to support each other. They live in the same house. Grandparents take care of the children which allows the other adults to work. They pool their money, eat what grandma has cooked and generally operate as a pro-active unit, something that we've forgotten in the UK.

Can you imagine a teenager having to hand over his wage packet to the Patriarc of the family everyweek and receive only pocket money back? It happens.

[QUOTE=Susan P]There are many stories of immigrants arriving with nothing and starting their own successful business. [/QUOTE]

Often those successful businesses are the ones who are paying the lowest wages, which encourages indignenous local businessmen to complain about unfair competition. Wrongly? This seems to be the case in Prato, which has an official Chinese population of 30,000 (10% of the whole). It was also the case in the Bangladeshi sweatshops of Brick Lane, London and probably so when it was Eastern European Jews who owned and worked in those same sweatshops. Now it is becoming the trendiest area of London for the [I]creative types[/I] to live.

[QUOTE=sdoj]Often those successful businesses are the ones who are paying the lowest wages, which encourages indignenous local businessmen to complain about unfair competition. Wrongly? This seems to be the case in Prato, which has an official Chinese population of 30,000 (10% of the whole). It was also the case in the Bangladeshi sweatshops of Brick Lane, London and probably so when it was Eastern European Jews who owned and worked in those same sweatshops. Now it is becoming the trendiest area of London for the [I]creative types[/I] to live.[/QUOTE]

LEICESTER, please don't forget leicester, which is well known in the textile industry for being the CAPITAL for ripping off well known branded garments,
in the hundreds of small sweatshops.
plus the more legal practice of taking out labels of goods made in china/india?
and putting in the george brand label [asda]

they survive in the case of our village by locals helping them with fuel for the winter...food to eat and invites to meals.... these are people that are also not well off ...giving to others despite mis held preconceptions because as one man here says to me....he knows how it is to be away from home...cold and hungry...he was taken off to labour camps during a bad period for all in the world and has not forgotten the times when he was helped by locals in germany ...jugosalvia ...etc... to survive these enforced labour camps...... long may mans humanity to others survive... despite our politicians

"Immigrants" it's just a mere concept, an abstract though.
It's really impossible to give a single definition for a universe of people with different and peculiar lifes.
First of all we have to consider that there are two kind of immigrants:
- legal (regolari)
- illegal (clandestini - without papers - wop... sounds familiar?).
The first have a regoular job, normally payed.
They work in industries, building companies, agriculture, sevices etc.
They're part of our community, buy houses, establish companies their children attend our schools and under many ways they are the italian future, because of demographic rules.
The illegal have different situations.
Many of them work "in black", but not necessarly underpayed
I know it happens in Marche, where there's shortage of people willing to do heavy jobs, like peasants, masons etc, other illegal (wemen) just take care of the eldest italians (badanti).
Another part of the illegal is expolited, in the way Adriatica and Sdoj stressed or accept "border line" activities.
They are part of the black economy that, alas, it's part of Italy.
It's evident that a social malaise like this, can generate crime in the immigrants and social fear in the italians.
It has been correclty hilighted that it's not important if the immigrants are really involved in crimes or illegal life, but, unfortunatly, it's important how they are perceived.
It's wrong, but it's very common to blame the foreigner, the one who looks different.
It happend, in the past, with the italian immigrants (wop, dago....) it's happening now and here with albanians, rumenians, gypsies, arabs, falling in the same wrong stereotypes.
We italians should have antibodies for this, because of our past of immigrants, but it's not so easy, when you become part of the wealthy side of the world, to remember who you were.
Anyway, we cannot avoid the problem, since immigrants will always try to come, legally or illegally
The only solution, in my opinion, is to avoid ghettos (school is essential) and do not use this people (and the fear of it) just for winning one more vote in an election.